Author: İbrahim CAN, Cahit YERDELEN
Publishing Date: 2005
Volume 20 Issue 3
In this study, an Autoregressive-Moving-Average (ARMA) model of monthly flows at gauging station 302 on M. Kemal Paşa river, Susurluk basin, was constructed. Studies were carried out by using data from the water yearbooks publised by EIE. ARMA(1,1) with autoregressive parameter ( φ) 0.8704 moving average parameter ( θ ) 0.2861 was chosen as the best model among other potential models. The high autoregressive parameter with respect to moving average parameter shows that the goundwater fraction is very significant. Porte Manteau and autocorrelation tests have shown that the residual terms are independent. Using constructed ARMA(1,1) model, 100 synthetic series were generated. This model was proven to be suitable for M.Kemal Paşa river due to the fact that statistical moments of historical series were satisfactorily preserved in the generated series.
Key Words: Susurluk basin; seasonal autoregressive-moving-average model; stochastic hydrology.